IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF preview
In the upcoming match between IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF, the 1X2 probabilities show IF Elfsborg at 48%, a draw at 29%, and Malmo FF at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% chance of occurring. The expected goals indicate that IF Elfsborg has an advantage with 1.48 compared to Malmo FF's 0.95.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 49%, suggesting a close contest where either side could find the net. Additionally, the recent form shows IF Elfsborg with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Malmo FF has also performed well with 4 wins in the same timeframe. This competitive edge could influence the outcome.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF: model vs market
| Source | IF Elfsborg | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | +3% | +3% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices IF Elfsborg below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IF Elfsborg, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg | 2.26 | 2.01 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.58 | +0.08 |
| Malmo FF | 2.91 | 3.30 | +0.39 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (IF Elfsborg / Malmo FF)
- 1.28 / 0.95
- Defence rating (IF Elfsborg / Malmo FF)
- 0.72 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IF Elfsborg goals. Columns: Malmo FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IF Elfsborg | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Malmo FF | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IF Elfsborg or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Malmo FF) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | IF Elfsborg win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF recent form
IF Elfsborg
4W 1D 1L
Malmo FF
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IF Elfsborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-2
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malmo FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-3
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 11
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IF Elfsborg at home only, Malmo FF away only.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: IF Elfsborg 1 · draws 1 · Malmo FF 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Malmo FF | 1-2 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-09-14 | IF Elfsborg | 2-2 | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-04-07 | Malmo FF | 2-1 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Vasteras SK FK vs Halmstad — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Sirius vs AIK Stockholm 2026-10-24
- Djurgardens IF v Orgryte IS — match page 2026-10-24
- Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gais vs IFK Goteborg 2026-10-25
- Mjallby AIF v Hammarby FF — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- IF Elfsborg, previous: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg prediction
- Malmo FF, previous: Malmo FF v BK Hacken analysis