Sirius vs AIK Stockholm preview
Sirius faces AIK Stockholm with a 61% probability of winning compared to AIK's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Sirius's expected goals of 2.44 against AIK's 1.31. The model also indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 68%.
However, Sirius's recent form shows a mix of results, including one loss in their last six matches, while AIK Stockholm has struggled with three consecutive winless games. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it possible for AIK to perform better than expected despite their low probabilities.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm: model vs market
| Source | Sirius | Draw | AIK Stockholm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 60% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.59, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sirius, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 1.54 | 1.53 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.00 |
| AIK Stockholm | 5.12 | 4.92 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (Sirius / AIK Stockholm)
- 1.17 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Sirius / AIK Stockholm)
- 0.85 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sirius goals. Columns: AIK Stockholm goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sirius | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| AIK Stockholm | 20% | 5.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sirius or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or AIK Stockholm) | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sirius win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sirius and AIK Stockholm recent form
Sirius
4W 1D 1L
AIK Stockholm
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sirius at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-2
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 17 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AIK Stockholm away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-2
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sirius at home only, AIK Stockholm away only.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sirius 2 · draws 0 · AIK Stockholm 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | AIK Stockholm | 0-3 | Sirius | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-08-31 | AIK Stockholm | 2-1 | Sirius | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-06-01 | Sirius | 3-1 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF — match page 2026-10-23
- Vasteras SK FK vs Halmstad — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Djurgardens IF v Orgryte IS — match page 2026-10-24
- Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gais vs IFK Goteborg 2026-10-25
- Mjallby AIF v Hammarby FF — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sirius, previous: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg prediction
- AIK Stockholm, previous: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg: odds and pick