IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS preview
In the match between IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong favor towards IF Elfsborg at 67%, while Orgryte IS sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 10% chance of occurring. IF Elfsborg has an expected goals figure of 2.31 compared to Orgryte IS's 0.95, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the recent form of both teams presents a potential challenge. IF Elfsborg has drawn twice and won three times in their last six matches, while Orgryte IS has only secured one win in their last six, with three losses. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 56%, suggesting that while Elfsborg is likely to dominate, there is still a chance for Orgryte IS to find the net.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS: model vs market
| Source | IF Elfsborg | Draw | Orgryte IS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IF Elfsborg, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg | 1.39 | 1.39 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.00 |
| Orgryte IS | 7.03 | 7.03 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (IF Elfsborg / Orgryte IS)
- 1.15 / 1.09
- Defence rating (IF Elfsborg / Orgryte IS)
- 0.65 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IF Elfsborg goals. Columns: Orgryte IS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IF Elfsborg | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Orgryte IS | 13% | 7.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IF Elfsborg or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Orgryte IS) | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | IF Elfsborg win by 2+ | 45% | 2.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS recent form
IF Elfsborg
3W 2D 1L
Orgryte IS
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IF Elfsborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-2
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orgryte IS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-10
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IF Elfsborg at home only, Orgryte IS away only.
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: IF Elfsborg 0 · draws 1 · Orgryte IS 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Orgryte IS | 2-2 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
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- Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF 2026-11-01
- BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg 2026-11-01
- Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- IF Elfsborg, previous: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg prediction
- Orgryte IS, previous: Orgryte IS v Mjallby AIF analysis