Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF preview
In the match between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF, the 1X2 probabilities show Hammarby FF at 36% and Malmo FF at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Hammarby FF's stronger recent form, with 3 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Malmo FF's 2 wins.
While both teams to score stands at 37%, Malmo FF's expected goals are only 0.84, indicating they may struggle to find the net. Additionally, the low 27% for Over 2.5 goals suggests a tight match. Hammarby FF has won their last 3 encounters against Malmo FF, which adds to their advantage.
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF: model vs market
| Source | Malmo FF | Draw | Hammarby FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 35% | 39% |
| Market | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Published | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Edge | 0% | +3% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hammarby FF, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Hammarby FF | 1.78 | 1.78 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Malmo FF and Hammarby FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.78
- Attack rating (Malmo FF / Hammarby FF)
- 0.87 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Malmo FF / Hammarby FF)
- 0.70 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malmo FF goals. Columns: Hammarby FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malmo FF | 24% | 4.11 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Hammarby FF | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.82 |
| No | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malmo FF or draw) | 51% | 1.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Hammarby FF) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win by 2+ | 16% | 6.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Malmo FF and Hammarby FF recent form
Malmo FF
2W 2D 2L
Hammarby FF
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malmo FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hammarby FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-4
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Malmo FF at home only, Hammarby FF away only.
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Malmo FF 0 · draws 0 · Hammarby FF 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Hammarby FF | 4-1 | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-10-27 | Malmo FF | 1-3 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-04-23 | Hammarby FF | 2-0 | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
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- BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg 2026-11-01
- IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Malmo FF, previous: Halmstad – Malmo FF, 2026-10-28
- Hammarby FF, previous: Hammarby FF vs Sirius prediction