AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif preview
In the upcoming match between AS Marsa and CS Hammam-Lif, the 1X2 probabilities show AS Marsa at 47%, while CS Hammam-Lif sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 21% chance. AS Marsa has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.01 compared to CS Hammam-Lif's 0.49.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. The low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 26% suggest that a low-scoring game is more likely. Recent form also favors AS Marsa, but CS Hammam-Lif could surprise given their recent draws against them.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif: model vs market
| Source | AS Marsa | Draw | CS Hammam-Lif |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 37% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 37% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
AS Marsa and CS Hammam-Lif expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.51
- Attack rating (AS Marsa / CS Hammam-Lif)
- 1.01 / 0.71
- Defence rating (AS Marsa / CS Hammam-Lif)
- 0.98 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AS Marsa goals. Columns: CS Hammam-Lif goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 26%
- No goals (0–0)
- 23%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AS Marsa | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.71 | |
| CS Hammam-Lif | 17% | 6.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19% | 5.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26% | 3.85 |
| No | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AS Marsa or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| X2 (draw or CS Hammam-Lif) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | AS Marsa win by 2+ | 19% | 5.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AS Marsa and CS Hammam-Lif recent form
AS Marsa
2W 2D 2L
CS Hammam-Lif
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AS Marsa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
CS Hammam-Lif away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AS Marsa at home only, CS Hammam-Lif away only.
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AS Marsa 0 · draws 2 · CS Hammam-Lif 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | AS Marsa | 1-1 | CS Hammam-Lif | Ligue 2 |
| 2024-10-27 | CS Hammam-Lif | 0-0 | AS Marsa | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien — match page 2026-10-23
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- ES Tunis v US Monastirienne — match page 2026-11-01
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis 2026-11-01
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- AS Marsa, previous: AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui prediction
- CS Hammam-Lif, previous: CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane: odds and pick