AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui preview

In the upcoming match between AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui, the 1X2 probabilities show AS Marsa at 39%, a draw at 39%, and ES Metlaoui at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 25% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 27%, while Over 2.5 goals is only 18%.

AS Marsa's expected goals are 0.87, while ES Metlaoui's are lower at 0.58. Recent form indicates AS Marsa has drawn three times in their last six matches, while ES Metlaoui has lost four of their last six. This context may affect the outcome, especially given that ES Metlaoui has won both of their last two encounters against AS Marsa.

AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AS Marsa	Draw	ES Metlaoui
Model	39%	39%	22%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	39%	22%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.87AS Marsa

0.58ES Metlaoui

Total expected goals: 1.45
Attack rating (AS Marsa / ES Metlaoui): 0.79 / 0.77
Defence rating (AS Marsa / ES Metlaoui): 1.06 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 24.6% 12.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 1 19.2% 13.0% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2 8.9% 5.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 3 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: AS Marsa goals. Columns: ES Metlaoui goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 75%

Over 1.5 44%

Over 2.5 18%

Over 3.5 6%

Both teams to score: 27%
No goals (0–0): 25%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AS Marsa	39%	2.57
	Draw	39%	2.55
	ES Metlaoui	22%	4.57
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	18%	5.58
	Under 2.5	82%	1.22
Both teams to score	Yes	27%	3.73
	No	73%	1.37
Double chance	1X (AS Marsa or draw)	78%	1.28
	12 (either side)	61%	1.64
	X2 (draw or ES Metlaoui)	61%	1.64
Handicap -1	AS Marsa win by 2+	14%	7.08
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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