Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel preview

In the upcoming match between Olympique Béja and ES Sahel, the 1X2 probabilities show Olympique Béja at 46%, while ES Sahel sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Both teams to score has a probability of 50%, indicating a balanced chance for both sides to find the net.

Olympique Béja's recent form includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while ES Sahel has 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals for Olympique Béja is 1.47 compared to ES Sahel's 1.02. A potential factor that could challenge the predicted outcome is the recent form of both teams, which shows inconsistency.

Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olympique Béja	Draw	ES Sahel
Model	46%	29%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	46%	29%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.02.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Olympique Béja and ES Sahel expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Olympique Béja

1.02ES Sahel

Total expected goals: 2.49
Attack rating (Olympique Béja / ES Sahel): 0.98 / 0.99
Defence rating (Olympique Béja / ES Sahel): 1.44 / 1.44

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.5% 7.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 1 11.0% 13.7% 6.3% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.0% 9.2% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 3 4.4% 4.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Olympique Béja goals. Columns: ES Sahel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olympique Béja	46%	2.15
	Draw	29%	3.49
	ES Sahel	25%	4.02
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.20
	Under 2.5	55%	1.83
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	1.98
	No	50%	2.02
Double chance	1X (Olympique Béja or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or ES Sahel)	54%	1.87
Handicap -1	Olympique Béja win by 2+	24%	4.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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