US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer preview

In the fixture between US Monastirienne and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, the 1X2 probabilities show US Monastirienne at 34%, a draw at 39%, and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, which has a 24% probability.

Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with US Monastirienne drawing three of their last five matches, while Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer has won four of their last five. The expected goals are 0.80 for US Monastirienne and 0.68 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. With only 19% for Over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, a lack of scoring could make the predicted outcome less likely.

US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	US Monastirienne	Draw	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Model	34%	39%	27%
Market	—	—	—
Published	34%	39%	27%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

US Monastirienne and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.80US Monastirienne

0.68Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Total expected goals: 1.48
Attack rating (US Monastirienne / Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer): 1.22 / 1.06
Defence rating (US Monastirienne / Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer): 0.91 / 0.63

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 24.0% 14.3% 5.3% 1.2% 0.2% 1 16.9% 13.6% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2 7.2% 4.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 3 1.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: US Monastirienne goals. Columns: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 76%

Over 1.5 45%

Over 2.5 19%

Over 3.5 6%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 24%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	US Monastirienne	34%	2.97
	Draw	39%	2.54
	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	27%	3.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	19%	5.37
	Under 2.5	81%	1.23
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.52
	No	72%	1.40
Double chance	1X (US Monastirienne or draw)	73%	1.37
	12 (either side)	61%	1.65
	X2 (draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	US Monastirienne win by 2+	11%	8.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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