ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane preview
In the fixture between ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane, the 1X2 probabilities show US Ben Guerdane at 48% and ES Hammam-Sousse at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 18% chance. ES Hammam-Sousse has struggled recently, recording four losses and a draw in their last five matches, while US Ben Guerdane has performed better with three wins, two draws, and one loss.
The expected goals indicate ES Hammam-Sousse at 0.64 and US Ben Guerdane at 1.18. With Over 2.5 goals at just 28% and both teams to score at 34%, the match could be low-scoring. If ES Hammam-Sousse improves their form, the predictions could change significantly.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane: model vs market
| Source | ES Hammam-Sousse | Draw | US Ben Guerdane |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 33% | 48% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 19% | 33% | 48% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.82
- Attack rating (ES Hammam-Sousse / US Ben Guerdane)
- 0.63 / 1.22
- Defence rating (ES Hammam-Sousse / US Ben Guerdane)
- 1.37 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ES Hammam-Sousse goals. Columns: US Ben Guerdane goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 19% | 5.35 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.00 | |
| US Ben Guerdane | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.95 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ES Hammam-Sousse or draw) | 52% | 1.92 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or US Ben Guerdane) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | US Ben Guerdane win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane recent form
ES Hammam-Sousse
0W 1D 4L
US Ben Guerdane
3W 2D 1L
Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ES Hammam-Sousse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
US Ben Guerdane away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ES Hammam-Sousse at home only, US Ben Guerdane away only.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: ES Hammam-Sousse 0 · draws 1 · US Ben Guerdane 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-10 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1-1 | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-11-18 | US Ben Guerdane | 2-1 | ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2026-10-18
- AS Marsa v ES Metlaoui — match page 2026-10-18
- Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel 2026-10-18
- CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Club Africain vs CA Bizertin 2026-10-29
- Stade Tunisien v ES Zarzis — match page 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- ES Hammam-Sousse, previous: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse prediction
- US Ben Guerdane, previous: US Ben Guerdane – Club Africain, 2026-10-10