CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse preview
In the fixture between CA Bizertin and ES Hammam-Sousse, the 1X2 probabilities show CA Bizertin at 52%, while ES Hammam-Sousse sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 24% chance, indicating a tight match.
CA Bizertin's expected goals are 1.09 compared to ES Hammam-Sousse's 0.39, suggesting a significant attacking advantage for the home side. However, the recent form of ES Hammam-Sousse, with 5 losses and only 1 draw in their last 6 matches, could lead to unpredictable outcomes. Both teams to score is at 22%, and Over 2.5 goals is only at 18%, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring affair.
CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse: model vs market
| Source | CA Bizertin | Draw | ES Hammam-Sousse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 36% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 36% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.39.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CA Bizertin and ES Hammam-Sousse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.48
- Attack rating (CA Bizertin / ES Hammam-Sousse)
- 0.71 / 0.56
- Defence rating (CA Bizertin / ES Hammam-Sousse)
- 0.97 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CA Bizertin goals. Columns: ES Hammam-Sousse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 22%
- No goals (0–0)
- 24%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA Bizertin | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.81 | |
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 12% | 8.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18% | 5.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 22% | 4.48 |
| No | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CA Bizertin or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| X2 (draw or ES Hammam-Sousse) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | CA Bizertin win by 2+ | 23% | 4.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 30% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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CA Bizertin and ES Hammam-Sousse recent form
CA Bizertin
2W 2D 2L
ES Hammam-Sousse
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CA Bizertin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ES Hammam-Sousse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CA Bizertin at home only, ES Hammam-Sousse away only.
CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: CA Bizertin 3 · draws 3 · ES Hammam-Sousse 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-27 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1-0 | CA Bizertin | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-04-26 | CA Bizertin | 2-2 | ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-25 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 0-1 | CA Bizertin | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-22 | CA Bizertin | 2-2 | ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-26 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1-0 | CA Bizertin | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-10-23 | CA Bizertin | 0-0 | ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| 2012-05-23 | CA Bizertin | 2-1 | ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| 2011-12-11 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1-3 | CA Bizertin | Ligue 1 |
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Before and after this match
- CA Bizertin, previous: CA Bizertin vs US Monastirienne prediction
- CA Bizertin, next: Club Africain vs CA Bizertin prediction
- ES Hammam-Sousse, previous: ES Hammam-Sousse – US Ben Guerdane, 2026-10-17