US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien preview
In the fixture between US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien, the model gives US Ben Guerdane a 53% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 14%. The expected goals for US Ben Guerdane stand at 1.50, while Stade Tunisien has an expected goals figure of 0.77.
However, the recent form shows both teams are competitive, with US Ben Guerdane winning 4 of their last 6 matches and Stade Tunisien winning 3 of their last 6. The model suggests a 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score, indicating that while US Ben Guerdane is favored, Stade Tunisien could still pose a challenge.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien: model vs market
| Source | US Ben Guerdane | Draw | Stade Tunisien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (US Ben Guerdane / Stade Tunisien)
- 1.33 / 1.23
- Defence rating (US Ben Guerdane / Stade Tunisien)
- 0.88 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: US Ben Guerdane goals. Columns: Stade Tunisien goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Ben Guerdane | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Stade Tunisien | 18% | 5.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (US Ben Guerdane or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Stade Tunisien) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | US Ben Guerdane win by 2+ | 28% | 3.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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US Ben Guerdane and Stade Tunisien recent form
US Ben Guerdane
4W 2D 0L
Stade Tunisien
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
US Ben Guerdane at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stade Tunisien away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: US Ben Guerdane at home only, Stade Tunisien away only.
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: US Ben Guerdane 2 · draws 6 · Stade Tunisien 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Stade Tunisien | 0-0 | US Ben Guerdane | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-09 | US Ben Guerdane | 1-0 | Stade Tunisien | Tunisia Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-27 | Stade Tunisien | 1-0 | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-02 | US Ben Guerdane | 0-0 | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Stade Tunisien | 2-1 | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-03 | US Ben Guerdane | 2-1 | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-04-07 | US Ben Guerdane | 0-0 | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-01-27 | Stade Tunisien | 0-0 | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| 2020-08-30 | US Ben Guerdane | 2-2 | Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| 2019-12-01 | Stade Tunisien | 1-1 | US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif 2026-10-23
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- ES Tunis v US Monastirienne — match page 2026-11-01
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis 2026-11-01
- ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v Club Africain — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- US Ben Guerdane, previous: ES Hammam-Sousse – US Ben Guerdane, 2026-10-17
- Stade Tunisien, previous: ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien: odds and pick
- Stade Tunisien, next: Stade Tunisien – ES Zarzis, 2026-10-29