Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor preview
Antalyaspor faces Bursaspor with a 22% chance of winning compared to Bursaspor's 53%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs 10% of the time according to our model. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 57%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game.
Antalyaspor's expected goals stand at 1.10, while Bursaspor's is 1.86, reflecting their recent form. Antalyaspor has a mixed record with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Bursaspor has 5 wins in their last 6. Despite a favorable head-to-head with 7 wins in the last 10 encounters, Antalyaspor's current form could impact the outcome.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor: model vs market
| Source | Antalyaspor | Draw | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 54% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bursaspor, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | 3.80 | 4.29 | +0.50 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.78 | +0.14 |
| Bursaspor | 1.83 | 1.67 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Antalyaspor and Bursaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Antalyaspor / Bursaspor)
- 0.96 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Antalyaspor / Bursaspor)
- 1.00 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antalyaspor goals. Columns: Bursaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antalyaspor | 21% | 4.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Bursaspor | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antalyaspor or draw) | 46% | 2.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Bursaspor) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Antalyaspor and Bursaspor recent form
Antalyaspor
3W 1D 2L
Bursaspor
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Antalyaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bursaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-1
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 2.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Antalyaspor at home only, Bursaspor away only.
Expected lineups
Antalyaspor lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 77 F. Pseftis
- 11 G. Vural
- 15 F. Nzaba
- 4 Bugra Tivsiz Ensar
- 19 S. Karakoç
- 14 Pedrinho
- 6 S. Dikmen
- 22 S. van de Streek
- 5 Ö. Beyaz
- 97 M. Şimşek
- 9 Nuno da Costa
Bench: E. Yeşilyurt, S. Yalçın, Hasan Yakub İlçin, A. Yiğiter, A. Sağat, M. Yılmaz, A. Kocaman, Ismail Chehaima, Arda Altun, V. Sarı
Bursaspor lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 98 K. Matisli
- 27 T. Bayramov
- 5 Emirhan Başyiğit
- 4 E. Ersoy
- 77 R. Berişbek
- 6 J. Elitim
- 8 S. Aydoğdu
- 73 A. Boutrah
- 42 L. Baker
- 7 H. Akbunar
- 14 K. Ịheanachọ
Bench: E. Akcan, T. Aydoğan
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Antalyaspor 7 · draws 0 · Bursaspor 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Antalyaspor | 3-0 | Bursaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 2021-01-12 | Bursaspor | 0-3 | Antalyaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 2019-05-10 | Antalyaspor | 0-1 | Bursaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2018-12-09 | Bursaspor | 0-2 | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2018-03-31 | Antalyaspor | 2-0 | Bursaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2017-10-29 | Bursaspor | 4-0 | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2017-05-20 | Antalyaspor | 2-1 | Bursaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2016-12-19 | Bursaspor | 2-1 | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2016-03-14 | Antalyaspor | 3-0 | Bursaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2015-10-17 | Bursaspor | 0-2 | Antalyaspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK 2026-11-06
- Keçiörengücü v Manisa F.K. — match page 2026-11-07
- Vanspor FK v Sivasspor — match page 2026-11-07
- Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-11-07
- Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-11-08
- Boluspor v Bodrum FK — match page 2026-11-08
- Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Antalyaspor, previous: Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor prediction
- Bursaspor, previous: Bursaspor – Bandırmaspor, 2026-10-31