Updated

1. Lig · Matchday 14

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK

· Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul· Referee Hakan Ulker

Alin prediction Iğdır FK to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SarıyerDrawIğdır FK
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.83.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Sarıyer2.67 Draw3.26 Iğdır FK2.80

Price as of

Expected return at 2.80: +2.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK preview

In the match between Sarıyer and Iğdır FK, the 1X2 probabilities show Sarıyer at 33%, Iğdır FK at 36%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 14%. Sarıyer's expected goals stand at 0.83, while Iğdır FK's are higher at 1.21, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.

While both teams to score is predicted at 41% and Over 2.5 goals at 34%, these figures suggest a low-scoring game may be more likely. Sarıyer's recent form includes two losses and a win, while Iğdır FK has a more positive trend with three wins in their last six matches. This contrast in form could impact the outcome.

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSarıyerDrawIğdır FK
Model24%32%44%
Market36%30%34%
Published33%30%36%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Iğdır FK below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Iğdır FK, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.87Now 2.67 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sarıyer2.442.52+0.09
Draw3.053.05+0.00
Iğdır FK2.872.67-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sarıyer and Iğdır FK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83Sarıyer
1.21Iğdır FK
Total expected goals
2.05
Attack rating (Sarıyer / Iğdır FK)
0.73 / 0.99
Defence rating (Sarıyer / Iğdır FK)
0.98 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.2% 14.4% 9.5% 3.8% 1.5% 1 9.5% 14.4% 7.9% 3.2% 1.3% 2 4.5% 5.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Sarıyer goals. Columns: Iğdır FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sarıyer33%3.02
Draw30%3.28
Iğdır FK36%2.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.98
Under 2.566%1.51
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.44
No59%1.70
Double chance1X (Sarıyer or draw)64%1.57
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Iğdır FK)67%1.49
Handicap -1Iğdır FK win by 2+20%5.03
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Sarıyer and Iğdır FK recent form

Sarıyer 1W 2D 3L
Iğdır FK 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sarıyer at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-3
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Iğdır FK away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sarıyer at home only, Iğdır FK away only.

Expected lineups

Sarıyer lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 I. Šehić
  2. 5 E. Korkmazoğlu
  3. 88 C. Osmanpaşa
  4. 24 K. Arslan
  5. 77 C. Karayel
  6. 8 Marcos Silva
  7. 28 H. Yeşilyurt
  8. 10 E. Karaca
  9. 41 F. Gedik
  10. 90 E. Eze

Bench: F. Akyüz, J. Attamah, E. Dikmen, B. Alici, B. Kör, E. Karadağ, T. Ergül, D. Davas, Ü. Ergün, M. Thiam

Iğdır FK lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 29 J. Szumski
  2. 28 S. Gönül
  3. 18 L. Kouagba
  4. 5 A. Öztürk
  5. 61 S. Asan
  6. 21 D. Erdoğan
  7. 17 S. Gürler
  8. 24 G. Crociata
  9. 58 G. Kaya
  10. 7 M. Camara
  11. 9 A. Çolak

Bench: T. Tepe, B. Moğultay, A. Öztürk, D. Şenyurt, E. Sihlaroğlu, L. Bacuna, Ö. Özcan, D. Hotić, F. Afena-Gyan, L. Caliskan

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Sarıyer 1 · draws 1 · Iğdır FK 2.

SarıyerDrawsIğdır FK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-11Sarıyer1-0Iğdır FK1. Lig
2025-08-09Iğdır FK2-1Sarıyer1. Lig
2024-03-10Sarıyer0-0Iğdır FK2. Lig
2023-10-28Iğdır FK2-1Sarıyer2. Lig

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Iğdır FK to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Iğdır FK
Our pick: Iğdır FK to win 18+ Bet Now