Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük preview
In the match between Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük, the 1X2 probabilities show Bandırmaspor at 39% and Fatih Karagümrük at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Bandırmaspor's expected goals stand at 1.14, while Fatih Karagümrük's is 0.96.
However, the prediction could change if both teams manage to score, as our model indicates a 43% chance for both teams to score. Additionally, the possibility of Over 2.5 goals is at 35%, which suggests that a higher-scoring game could occur. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, which adds an element of unpredictability to the match.
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: model vs market
| Source | Bandırmaspor | Draw | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bandırmaspor, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bandırmaspor | 2.30 | 2.24 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.06 | 3.10 | +0.04 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 3.05 | 3.01 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.10
- Attack rating (Bandırmaspor / Fatih Karagümrük)
- 0.85 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Bandırmaspor / Fatih Karagümrük)
- 0.88 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bandırmaspor goals. Columns: Fatih Karagümrük goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bandırmaspor | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bandırmaspor or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Fatih Karagümrük) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bandırmaspor win by 2+ | 17% | 5.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük recent form
Bandırmaspor
1W 1D 4L
Fatih Karagümrük
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bandırmaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fatih Karagümrük away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bandırmaspor at home only, Fatih Karagümrük away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor 2026-11-06
- Keçiörengücü v Manisa F.K. — match page 2026-11-07
- Vanspor FK v Sivasspor — match page 2026-11-07
- Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-11-07
- Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Boluspor v Bodrum FK — match page 2026-11-08
- Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Mardin 1969 vs Batman Petrolspor — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Bandırmaspor, previous: Bursaspor – Bandırmaspor, 2026-10-31
- Fatih Karagümrük, previous: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor prediction