Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor preview
In the upcoming match between Vanspor FK and Sivasspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Vanspor FK at 43%, while Sivasspor is at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which occurs with a 9% probability. This suggests a tight match, but the 49% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score indicate that a more open game is possible.
Vanspor FK's expected goals stand at 1.47 compared to Sivasspor's 1.17, reflecting a slight edge for the home side. However, recent form shows Vanspor FK with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Sivasspor has drawn four times in their last six. This inconsistency could impact the outcome and make the predictions less reliable.
Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor: model vs market
| Source | Vanspor FK | Draw | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vanspor FK, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanspor FK | 1.86 | 1.90 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.41 | -0.08 |
| Sivasspor | 3.70 | 3.62 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vanspor FK and Sivasspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Vanspor FK / Sivasspor)
- 0.83 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Vanspor FK / Sivasspor)
- 1.05 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vanspor FK goals. Columns: Sivasspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vanspor FK | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Sivasspor | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vanspor FK or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Sivasspor) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vanspor FK win by 2+ | 22% | 4.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vanspor FK and Sivasspor recent form
Vanspor FK
3W 0D 3L
Sivasspor
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vanspor FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sivasspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vanspor FK at home only, Sivasspor away only.
Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Vanspor FK 0 · draws 2 · Sivasspor 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Sivasspor | 3-3 | Vanspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 2025-09-20 | Vanspor FK | 0-0 | Sivasspor | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor 2026-11-06
- Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK 2026-11-06
- Keçiörengücü v Manisa F.K. — match page 2026-11-07
- Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-11-07
- Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-11-08
- Boluspor v Bodrum FK — match page 2026-11-08
- Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Vanspor FK, previous: Vanspor FK v Sarıyer analysis
- Sivasspor, previous: Sivasspor vs Boluspor prediction