Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor preview
In the match between Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor, the 1X2 probabilities show Ümraniyespor at 33%, a draw at 29%, and Kayserispor at 38%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown different recent forms, with Ümraniyespor recording W-W-D-W-L-L and Kayserispor on a stronger run of D-D-W-W-W-W. The expected goals are Ümraniyespor at 1.26 and Kayserispor at 1.35. While the model suggests a close match, factors like unexpected defensive errors or a sudden change in form could influence the outcome.
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor: model vs market
| Source | Ümraniyespor | Draw | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Published | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kayserispor, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | 3.73 | 3.75 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.51 | -0.04 |
| Kayserispor | 1.85 | 1.83 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Ümraniyespor / Kayserispor)
- 0.98 / 1.66
- Defence rating (Ümraniyespor / Kayserispor)
- 0.75 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ümraniyespor goals. Columns: Kayserispor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ümraniyespor | 25% | 4.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Kayserispor | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ümraniyespor or draw) | 51% | 1.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Kayserispor) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kayserispor win by 2+ | 25% | 4.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor recent form
Ümraniyespor
3W 2D 1L
Kayserispor
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ümraniyespor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kayserispor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-0
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.43
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ümraniyespor at home only, Kayserispor away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor 2026-11-06
- Keçiörengücü v Manisa F.K. — match page 2026-11-07
- Vanspor FK v Sivasspor — match page 2026-11-07
- Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-11-07
- Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-11-08
- Boluspor v Bodrum FK — match page 2026-11-08
- Mardin 1969 vs Batman Petrolspor — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Ümraniyespor, previous: Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor: odds and pick
- Kayserispor, previous: Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor: odds and pick