Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor preview
In the match between Bodrum FK and Ümraniyespor, the 1X2 probabilities show Bodrum FK at 43%, while Ümraniyespor stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. Both teams to score has a 44% probability, which indicates that there is a reasonable chance that both teams may find the net.
Bodrum FK's expected goals are 1.25, compared to Ümraniyespor's 0.90, suggesting that Bodrum FK is more likely to score. However, recent form shows Bodrum FK with a mixed record of W-W-W-L-D-W, while Ümraniyespor has a stronger recent form of W-W-D-W-L-L. This could lead to a different outcome than the probabilities suggest.
Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor: model vs market
| Source | Bodrum FK | Draw | Ümraniyespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 32% | 25% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bodrum FK and Ümraniyespor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Bodrum FK / Ümraniyespor)
- 1.00 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Bodrum FK / Ümraniyespor)
- 0.71 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bodrum FK goals. Columns: Ümraniyespor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bodrum FK | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Ümraniyespor | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bodrum FK or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Ümraniyespor) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bodrum FK win by 2+ | 20% | 5.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Bodrum FK and Ümraniyespor recent form
Bodrum FK
4W 1D 1L
Ümraniyespor
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bodrum FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ümraniyespor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bodrum FK at home only, Ümraniyespor away only.
Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bodrum FK 1 · draws 0 · Ümraniyespor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Bodrum FK | 1-0 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| 2025-11-23 | Ümraniyespor | 1-0 | Bodrum FK | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer 2026-10-31
- Bursaspor v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-31
- Fatih Karagümrük v Pendikspor — match page 2026-10-31
- Manisa F.K. vs Batman Petrolspor — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sivasspor vs Boluspor 2026-11-01
- İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Bodrum FK, previous: Antalyaspor – Bodrum FK, 2026-10-25
- Ümraniyespor, previous: Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: odds and pick