İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 preview
İstanbulspor faces Mardin 1969 with a 22% chance of winning compared to Mardin's 53%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Mardin's expected goals of 1.81 against İstanbulspor's 1.11. The model also suggests a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
İstanbulspor's recent form shows 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Mardin 1969 has won 3 of their last 6. This disparity in form could impact the match outcome. A draw is also a possibility, with a 25% probability according to the model.
İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969: model vs market
| Source | İstanbulspor | Draw | Mardin 1969 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
İstanbulspor and Mardin 1969 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (İstanbulspor / Mardin 1969)
- 0.80 / 0.92
- Defence rating (İstanbulspor / Mardin 1969)
- 1.57 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: İstanbulspor goals. Columns: Mardin 1969 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | İstanbulspor | 22% | 4.55 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Mardin 1969 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (İstanbulspor or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Mardin 1969) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mardin 1969 win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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İstanbulspor and Mardin 1969 recent form
İstanbulspor
1W 0D 5L
Mardin 1969
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
İstanbulspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Mardin 1969 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: İstanbulspor at home only, Mardin 1969 away only.
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Before and after this match
- İstanbulspor, previous: Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor analysis
- Mardin 1969, previous: Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. prediction