Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor preview
In the match between Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Fatih Karagümrük at 53% to win, while Pendikspor sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük is 1.84, compared to Pendikspor's 0.83, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the recent form suggests some uncertainty. Fatih Karagümrük has recorded a mixed bag of results with W-L-L-D-W-D, while Pendikspor has struggled, managing only 2 draws in their last 6 matches. With both teams to score at 49% and Over 2.5 goals at 50%, the match could still see surprises depending on how both teams perform on the day.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor: model vs market
| Source | Fatih Karagümrük | Draw | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fatih Karagümrük below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Fatih Karagümrük / Pendikspor)
- 0.94 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Fatih Karagümrük / Pendikspor)
- 0.81 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fatih Karagümrük goals. Columns: Pendikspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fatih Karagümrük | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Pendikspor | 21% | 4.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fatih Karagümrük or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Pendikspor) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fatih Karagümrük win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor recent form
Fatih Karagümrük
2W 2D 2L
Pendikspor
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fatih Karagümrük at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Pendikspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük at home only, Pendikspor away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Esenler Erokspor v Keçiörengücü — match page 2026-10-30
- Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer 2026-10-31
- Bursaspor v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-31
- Manisa F.K. vs Batman Petrolspor — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sivasspor vs Boluspor 2026-11-01
- İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Fatih Karagümrük, previous: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: odds and pick
- Pendikspor, previous: Pendikspor v Kayserispor analysis