Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü preview
Esenler Erokspor faces Keçiörengücü with probabilities of 24% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 44% for an away win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at 13%. Esenler Erokspor has an expected goals figure of 0.89, while Keçiörengücü's is 1.29, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the visitors.
Both teams to score stands at 44%, suggesting a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Esenler Erokspor's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Keçiörengücü, on the other hand, is in better form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches. This contrast in form could influence the outcome of the match.
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü: model vs market
| Source | Esenler Erokspor | Draw | Keçiörengücü |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Esenler Erokspor / Keçiörengücü)
- 0.80 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Esenler Erokspor / Keçiörengücü)
- 0.90 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Esenler Erokspor goals. Columns: Keçiörengücü goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esenler Erokspor | 25% | 4.07 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Keçiörengücü | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Esenler Erokspor or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Keçiörengücü) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Keçiörengücü win by 2+ | 21% | 4.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü recent form
Esenler Erokspor
2W 2D 2L
Keçiörengücü
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Esenler Erokspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keçiörengücü away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor at home only, Keçiörengücü away only.
Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Esenler Erokspor 1 · draws 1 · Keçiörengücü 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Esenler Erokspor | 1-0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2025-12-14 | Keçiörengücü | 1-1 | Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer 2026-10-31
- Bursaspor v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-31
- Fatih Karagümrük v Pendikspor — match page 2026-10-31
- Manisa F.K. vs Batman Petrolspor — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Esenler Erokspor, previous: Batman Petrolspor – Esenler Erokspor, 2026-10-25
- Keçiörengücü, previous: Keçiörengücü – Bursaspor, 2026-10-25