Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. preview
In the match between Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K., the 1X2 probabilities suggest a strong likelihood for Keçiörengücü at 58%, while both teams have a 21% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The expected goals show Keçiörengücü at 2.35 and Manisa F.K. at 1.38, indicating a potential for Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 68%.
However, Keçiörengücü's recent form includes two losses and a draw, while Manisa F.K. has not won in their last six matches, recording five losses and a draw. This recent form could impact the outcome, making the predicted scoreline less certain.
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.: model vs market
| Source | Keçiörengücü | Draw | Manisa F.K. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Keçiörengücü, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keçiörengücü | 1.65 | 1.61 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.03 | -0.02 |
| Manisa F.K. | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Keçiörengücü / Manisa F.K.)
- 1.19 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Keçiörengücü / Manisa F.K.)
- 1.01 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Keçiörengücü goals. Columns: Manisa F.K. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 56% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Manisa F.K. | 21% | 4.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Keçiörengücü or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Manisa F.K.) | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Keçiörengücü win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K. recent form
Keçiörengücü
2W 2D 2L
Manisa F.K.
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Keçiörengücü at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Manisa F.K. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Keçiörengücü at home only, Manisa F.K. away only.
Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K. head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Keçiörengücü 4 · draws 5 · Manisa F.K. 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Keçiörengücü | 2-1 | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| 2025-12-20 | Manisa F.K. | 2-2 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2025-04-05 | Manisa F.K. | 1-2 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2024-11-23 | Keçiörengücü | 4-0 | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| 2024-01-21 | Keçiörengücü | 1-1 | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| 2023-08-20 | Manisa F.K. | 0-0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2023-04-29 | Keçiörengücü | 0-3 | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| 2022-12-04 | Manisa F.K. | 0-0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2022-05-08 | Keçiörengücü | 2-1 | Manisa F.K. | 1. Lig |
| 2021-12-14 | Manisa F.K. | 1-1 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor 2026-11-06
- Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK 2026-11-06
- Vanspor FK v Sivasspor — match page 2026-11-07
- Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-11-07
- Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük 2026-11-08
- Boluspor v Bodrum FK — match page 2026-11-08
- Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Keçiörengücü, previous: Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü: odds and pick
- Manisa F.K., previous: Manisa F.K. – Batman Petrolspor, 2026-10-31