Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor: model vs market
| Source | Kayserispor | Draw | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kayserispor and Muğlaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Kayserispor / Muğlaspor)
- 1.40 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Kayserispor / Muğlaspor)
- 0.77 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kayserispor goals. Columns: Muğlaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kayserispor | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Muğlaspor | 20% | 5.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kayserispor or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Muğlaspor) | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kayserispor win by 2+ | 37% | 2.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kayserispor and Muğlaspor recent form
Kayserispor
4W 2D 0L
Muğlaspor
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kayserispor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Muğlaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kayserispor at home only, Muğlaspor away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer 2026-10-31
- Bursaspor v Bandırmaspor — match page 2026-10-31
- Fatih Karagümrük v Pendikspor — match page 2026-10-31
- Manisa F.K. vs Batman Petrolspor — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sivasspor vs Boluspor 2026-11-01
- İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kayserispor, previous: Pendikspor v Kayserispor analysis
- Muğlaspor, previous: Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor analysis