Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa, the 1X2 probabilities show Kasımpaşa at 62% to win, while Eyüpspor sits at just 15%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with Kasımpaşa expected to score significantly more goals, averaging 2.24 expected goals compared to Eyüpspor's 0.98.
Kasımpaşa's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Eyüpspor has lost 5 of their last 6 games. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 57%. However, an unexpected performance from Eyüpspor could alter the outcome.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa: model vs market
| Source | Eyüpspor | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 21% | 65% |
| Market | 16% | 24% | 61% |
| Published | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Edge | -1% | -3% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kasımpaşa below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kasımpaşa, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | 4.60 | 5.93 | +1.33 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.98 | +0.30 |
| Kasımpaşa | 1.75 | 1.55 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Eyüpspor / Kasımpaşa)
- 0.68 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Eyüpspor / Kasımpaşa)
- 1.66 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eyüpspor goals. Columns: Kasımpaşa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eyüpspor | 15% | 6.47 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Kasımpaşa | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eyüpspor or draw) | 38% | 2.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Kasımpaşa) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kasımpaşa win by 2+ | 43% | 2.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa recent form
Eyüpspor
1W 0D 5L
Kasımpaşa
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eyüpspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 7 matches.
Kasımpaşa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eyüpspor at home only, Kasımpaşa away only.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Eyüpspor 1 · draws 0 · Kasımpaşa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Kasımpaşa | 1-0 | Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-20 | Eyüpspor | 2-0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Samsunspor vs Amed 2026-10-24
- Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Göztepe v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — match page 2026-10-26
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Eyüpspor, previous: Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor analysis
- Kasımpaşa, previous: Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor, 2026-10-18