Samsunspor vs Amed preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Samsunspor and Amed, the 1X2 probabilities show Amed at 63%, while Samsunspor sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Amed's expected goals of 2.48 compared to Samsunspor's 1.28.
Amed's recent form is strong with four wins in their last six matches, while Samsunspor has lost five of their last six. The model suggests a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 67%. However, if Samsunspor can improve their performance, it could challenge these predictions.
Samsunspor vs Amed: model vs market
| Source | Samsunspor | Draw | Amed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 18% | 68% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Edge | -18% | -10% | +28% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Amed below the model: +27.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Samsunspor vs Amed odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Amed, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 2.70 | 2.87 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.40 | -0.02 |
| Amed | 2.43 | 2.35 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Samsunspor and Amed expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (Samsunspor / Amed)
- 0.89 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Samsunspor / Amed)
- 1.51 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Samsunspor vs Amed score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Samsunspor goals. Columns: Amed goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Samsunspor vs Amed goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Samsunspor vs Amed
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samsunspor | 28% | 3.55 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Amed | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Samsunspor or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Amed) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Amed win by 2+ | 48% | 2.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Samsunspor and Amed recent form
Samsunspor
0W 0D 6L
Amed
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Samsunspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Amed away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Samsunspor at home only, Amed away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Göztepe v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — match page 2026-10-26
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Samsunspor, previous: Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor, 2026-10-18
- Amed, previous: Amed vs Konyaspor: odds and pick