Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor, the 1X2 probabilities show Alanyaspor at 44% to win, while Kocaelispor stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 17% chance. Alanyaspor has an expected goals figure of 1.13 compared to Kocaelispor's 0.71, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, Kocaelispor comes into this match with good recent form, winning 4 of their last 6 games. While Alanyaspor has also shown some resilience, their recent results include 2 draws and a loss. The possibility of both teams scoring is 36%, and there's a 28% chance of Over 2.5 goals, suggesting that a low-scoring game is more likely.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor: model vs market
| Source | Alanyaspor | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Edge | -14% | +7% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alanyaspor, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 2.07 | 1.90 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.33 | +0.05 |
| Kocaelispor | 4.12 | 4.15 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.85
- Attack rating (Alanyaspor / Kocaelispor)
- 0.81 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Alanyaspor / Kocaelispor)
- 0.94 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alanyaspor goals. Columns: Kocaelispor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Kocaelispor | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.65 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alanyaspor or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Kocaelispor) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alanyaspor win by 2+ | 14% | 7.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor recent form
Alanyaspor
2W 2D 2L
Kocaelispor
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alanyaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kocaelispor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alanyaspor at home only, Kocaelispor away only.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alanyaspor 1 · draws 0 · Kocaelispor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Alanyaspor | 5-0 | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-25 | Kocaelispor | 2-0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Samsunspor vs Amed 2026-10-24
- Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Göztepe v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — match page 2026-10-26
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Alanyaspor, previous: Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor analysis
- Kocaelispor, previous: Kocaelispor – Göztepe, 2026-10-18