Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK preview
In the Süper Lig match between Gaziantep FK and Erzurumspor FK, the 1X2 probabilities show Gaziantep FK at 39%, a draw at 32%, and Erzurumspor FK at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which has an 11% chance of occurring.
Both teams to score stands at 40%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 32%. Gaziantep FK has expected goals of 0.90, while Erzurumspor FK has slightly higher expected goals at 1.07. This suggests that while Gaziantep FK may struggle to score, Erzurumspor FK could find the net, potentially impacting the final outcome.
Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK: model vs market
| Source | Gaziantep FK | Draw | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 34% | 38% |
| Market | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Published | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Edge | -13% | +2% | +11% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gaziantep FK, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep FK | 2.22 | 2.24 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.03 | 3.01 | -0.02 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 3.64 | 3.54 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gaziantep FK and Erzurumspor FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.97
- Attack rating (Gaziantep FK / Erzurumspor FK)
- 0.77 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Gaziantep FK / Erzurumspor FK)
- 1.18 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gaziantep FK goals. Columns: Erzurumspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gaziantep FK | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gaziantep FK or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Erzurumspor FK) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gaziantep FK win by 2+ | 10% | 9.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gaziantep FK and Erzurumspor FK recent form
Gaziantep FK
1W 1D 4L
Erzurumspor FK
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gaziantep FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Erzurumspor FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gaziantep FK at home only, Erzurumspor FK away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Samsunspor vs Amed 2026-10-24
- Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Göztepe v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — match page 2026-10-26
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Gaziantep FK, previous: Başakşehir – Gaziantep FK, 2026-10-18
- Erzurumspor FK, previous: Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor analysis