UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv preview
In the upcoming fixture between UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv, the 1X2 probabilities indicate Lokomotiv Kyiv has a 45% chance to win, while UCSA stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% probability. UCSA's expected goals are 1.09 compared to Lokomotiv Kyiv's 1.47, suggesting a tighter match than the odds imply.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 47%, while both teams to score has a 52% probability. UCSA's recent form shows they have struggled, with 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. In contrast, Lokomotiv Kyiv has been more consistent, winning 4 of their last 6. This disparity in form could influence the outcome, especially if UCSA can improve their scoring.
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv: model vs market
| Source | UCSA | Draw | Lokomotiv Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 29% | 45% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lokomotiv Kyiv below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lokomotiv Kyiv, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSA | 2.56 | 2.55 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.17 | 3.20 | +0.03 |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 2.49 | 2.50 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (UCSA / Lokomotiv Kyiv)
- 0.93 / 1.12
- Defence rating (UCSA / Lokomotiv Kyiv)
- 1.23 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UCSA goals. Columns: Lokomotiv Kyiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UCSA or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Lokomotiv Kyiv) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Kyiv win by 2+ | 23% | 4.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv recent form
UCSA
1W 2D 3L
Lokomotiv Kyiv
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UCSA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lokomotiv Kyiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: UCSA at home only, Lokomotiv Kyiv away only.
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: UCSA 0 · draws 2 · Lokomotiv Kyiv 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-03 | UCSA | 1-1 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Druha Liga |
| 2023-08-07 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 0-0 | UCSA | Druha Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' 2026-10-23
- Oleksandria v Probiy Horodenka — match page 2026-10-24
- Prykarpattia vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2026-10-24
- Polissya II vs SK Poltava — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka II — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Nyva Ternopil v Kulykiv — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- UCSA, previous: Kolos Kovalivka II v UCSA analysis
- Lokomotiv Kyiv, previous: Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Nyva Ternopil: odds and pick
- Lokomotiv Kyiv, next: Lokomotiv Kyiv v Inhulets analysis