Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv preview
In the upcoming match between Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv, Shakhtar Donetsk has a 57% chance of winning compared to Dynamo Kyiv's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% probability. Shakhtar's expected goals stand at 1.33, while Dynamo Kyiv's is only 0.77, suggesting a solid advantage for Shakhtar.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Dynamo Kyiv's recent form, which includes 5 wins in their last 6 matches, translates into strong performance on the day. Additionally, both teams to score has a 41% probability, indicating that a goal from Dynamo Kyiv is possible, which could shift the dynamics of the match.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv: model vs market
| Source | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 32% | 23% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.80.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shakhtar Donetsk, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 1.69 | 1.81 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.92 | 3.38 | -0.54 |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 4.92 | 4.05 | -0.87 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Dynamo Kyiv)
- 1.13 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Dynamo Kyiv)
- 0.59 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Columns: Dynamo Kyiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shakhtar Donetsk or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Dynamo Kyiv) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win by 2+ | 21% | 4.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv recent form
Shakhtar Donetsk
3W 1D 2L
Dynamo Kyiv
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shakhtar Donetsk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Dynamo Kyiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shakhtar Donetsk at home only, Dynamo Kyiv away only.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 2 · draws 0 · Dynamo Kyiv 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Dynamo Kyiv | 1-2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-11-02 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3-1 | Dynamo Kyiv | Ukraine Premier League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Polessya v Veres Rivne — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Kharkiv v Karpaty — match page 2026-11-07
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Kudrivka vs Chornomorets 2026-11-07
- Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy 2026-11-08
- Bukovyna vs Kolos Kovalivka 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Shakhtar Donetsk, previous: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: odds and pick
- Shakhtar Donetsk, next: Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe, 2026-11-25
- Dynamo Kyiv, previous: Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv prediction