FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty preview
In the match between FC Kharkiv and Karpaty, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Kharkiv at 46% to win, while Karpaty sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% chance according to our model. FC Kharkiv has shown strong recent form with 6 consecutive wins, while Karpaty has struggled with 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 matches.
While the expected goals suggest FC Kharkiv will score 1.37 and Karpaty 0.94, the chances of Over 2.5 goals stand at 41%. Additionally, both teams to score is at 47%. If Karpaty can improve their attacking performance, they might challenge FC Kharkiv more effectively than predicted.
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty: model vs market
| Source | FC Kharkiv | Draw | Karpaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Kharkiv, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Kharkiv | 1.96 | 2.00 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.34 | -0.01 |
| Karpaty | 3.68 | 3.45 | -0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Kharkiv and Karpaty expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (FC Kharkiv / Karpaty)
- 1.35 / 1.35
- Defence rating (FC Kharkiv / Karpaty)
- 0.73 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Kharkiv goals. Columns: Karpaty goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Kharkiv | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Karpaty | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Kharkiv or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Karpaty) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Kharkiv win by 2+ | 17% | 5.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Kharkiv and Karpaty recent form
FC Kharkiv
6W 0D 0L
Karpaty
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Kharkiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Karpaty away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Kharkiv at home only, Karpaty away only.
FC Kharkiv vs Karpaty head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC Kharkiv 2 · draws 1 · Karpaty 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | FC Kharkiv | 2-2 | Karpaty | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-11-22 | Karpaty | 1-2 | FC Kharkiv | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2024-07-05 | Karpaty | 0-1 | FC Kharkiv | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Polessya v Veres Rivne — match page 2026-11-06
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Kudrivka vs Chornomorets 2026-11-07
- Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy 2026-11-08
- Bukovyna vs Kolos Kovalivka 2026-11-08
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Kharkiv, previous: LNZ Cherkasy v FC Kharkiv analysis
- Karpaty, previous: Karpaty – Kudrivka, 2026-11-02