Updated

Ukraine Premier League · Matchday 12

Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh

· Obolon Arena, Kyiv· Referee Jevgeny Tsybulko

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Livyi Bereh to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

19% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Obolon'-BrovarDrawLivyi Bereh

Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceObolon'-BrovarDrawLivyi Bereh
Model17%32%51%
Market28%31%41%
Published25%31%44%
Edge-3%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.60.
  • The market prices Livyi Bereh below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Livyi Bereh, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.51Now 2.21 -0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Obolon'-Brovar2.763.32+0.56
Draw3.082.98-0.10
Livyi Bereh2.512.21-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.60Obolon'-Brovar
1.25Livyi Bereh
Total expected goals
1.85
Attack rating (Obolon'-Brovar / Livyi Bereh)
0.60 / 0.82
Defence rating (Obolon'-Brovar / Livyi Bereh)
1.26 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.0% 18.5% 12.3% 5.1% 2.1% 1 8.3% 13.0% 7.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2 2.8% 3.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 3 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Obolon'-Brovar goals. Columns: Livyi Bereh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%
Over 1.5 56%
Over 2.5 28%
Over 3.5 12%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Obolon'-Brovar25%4.01
Draw31%3.20
Livyi Bereh44%2.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.528%3.55
Under 2.572%1.39
Both teams to scoreYes33%3.01
No67%1.50
Double chance1X (Obolon'-Brovar or draw)56%1.78
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Livyi Bereh)75%1.33
Handicap -1Livyi Bereh win by 2+24%4.13
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh recent form

Obolon'-Brovar 1W 1D 4L
Livyi Bereh 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Obolon'-Brovar at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 10 matches.

Livyi Bereh away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Obolon'-Brovar at home only, Livyi Bereh away only.

Expected lineups

Obolon'-Brovar lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Fedorivskyi
  2. 5 Y. Shevchenko
  3. 30 K. Prokopchuk
  4. 3 V. Ermakov
  5. 2 D. Kapinus
  6. 4 T. Moroz
  7. 6 M. Chekh
  8. 7 A. Matkevych
  9. 10 O. Slobodyan
  10. 14 A. Shulyanskyi
  11. 9 D. Ustymenko

Bench: K. Barantsov, I. Medynskyi, D. Myshnov, Y. Morozko, R. Volokhatyi, E. Prokopenko, A. Lomnytskyi, Nikita Vorobyov, S. Sukhanov, D. Teslyuk

Livyi Bereh lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 R. Zhmurko
  2. 6 Sidney Silva Santos
  3. 4 V. Bondarenko
  4. 97 A. Yakymiv
  5. 2 O. Sokolov
  6. 44 Y. Banada
  7. 7 D. Shastal
  8. 15 V. Voloshyn
  9. 17 N. Vorobchak
  10. 9 Wendell

Bench: V. Samar, I. Kvasnytsya, I. Kovalenko, S. Tatolna, P. Fall, N. Voloshyn, E. Astakhov, A. Chelyadin, D. Ignatenko, N. Osei Bonsu

Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Obolon'-Brovar 2 · draws 3 · Livyi Bereh 1.

Obolon'-BrovarDrawsLivyi Bereh
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-21Livyi Bereh2-2Obolon'-BrovarFriendlies Clubs
2025-05-23Obolon'-Brovar1-0Livyi BerehPremier League
2024-11-30Livyi Bereh1-1Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
2024-06-02Livyi Bereh1-1Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
2024-05-29Obolon'-Brovar1-0Livyi BerehPremier League
2023-07-12Obolon'-Brovar0-2Livyi BerehFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match