Updated

Ukraine Premier League · Matchday 12

Polessya vs Veres Rivne

· Tsentralnyi Stadion, Zhytomyr· Referee Roman Blavatskiy

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Polessya to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PolessyaDrawVeres Rivne

Polessya vs Veres Rivne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePolessyaDrawVeres Rivne
Model80%15%5%
Market76%16%8%
Published77%16%7%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.56.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Polessya vs Veres Rivne odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Polessya, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.14Now 1.21 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Polessya1.141.21+0.07
Draw6.705.78-0.92
Veres Rivne17.0012.05-4.95

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Polessya and Veres Rivne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.55Polessya
0.56Veres Rivne
Total expected goals
3.11
Attack rating (Polessya / Veres Rivne)
1.57 / 0.59
Defence rating (Polessya / Veres Rivne)
0.79 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Polessya vs Veres Rivne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1 10.7% 7.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 2 14.5% 8.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3 12.3% 6.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 14.4% 8.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Polessya goals. Columns: Veres Rivne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Polessya vs Veres Rivne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Polessya vs Veres Rivne

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Polessya77%1.29
Draw16%6.39
Veres Rivne7%14.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.48
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (Polessya or draw)93%1.08
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Veres Rivne)23%4.40
Handicap -1Polessya win by 2+59%1.70
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Polessya and Veres Rivne recent form

Polessya 5W 1D 0L
Veres Rivne 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Polessya at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-0-1
Win rate
86%
Goals for / match
2.43
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Veres Rivne away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.40
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Polessya at home only, Veres Rivne away only.

Expected lineups

Polessya lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 23 Y. Volynets
  2. 55 B. Krushynskyi
  3. 5 E. Sarapiy
  4. 16 I. Krasniqi
  5. 31 G. Maisuradze
  6. 8 R. Babenko
  7. 10 V. Veleten
  8. 45 M. Bragaru
  9. 18 O. Andrievskyi
  10. 11 Leandro Andrade
  11. 95 I. Krasnopir

Bench: O. Kudryk, M. Kravchenko, O. Nazarenko, O. Filippov, L. Emërllahu, V. Shepelev, A. Araujo, O. Fedor, S. Chobotenko, N. Makarenko, M. Gayduchyk, D. Gryshkevych

Veres Rivne lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Pavlo Stefanyuk
  2. 25 I. Sanotskyi
  3. 4 K. Cipot
  4. 17 M. Protasevych
  5. 77 V. Sharay
  6. 6 David Niyo
  7. 44 D. Checher
  8. 11 L. Pomba
  9. 7 Fabrício Yan
  10. 23 M. Aleksandrov

Bench: M. Smiyan, Oleksandr Kharechko, Alagie Wally, K. Stamoulis, S. Migutskyi, L. Khokhashvili, Andrey Victor, Guilherme Bahia, R. Baran, V. Gorokh

Polessya vs Veres Rivne head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Polessya 5 · draws 4 · Veres Rivne 1.

PolessyaDrawsVeres Rivne
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Polessya1-1Veres RivneUkraine Premier League
2025-09-29Veres Rivne1-4PolessyaUkraine Premier League
2025-04-02Veres Rivne0-1PolessyaCup
2025-03-11Veres Rivne5-1PolessyaPremier League
2024-10-12Polessya0-0Veres RivneFriendlies Clubs
2024-09-15Polessya2-1Veres RivnePremier League
2024-07-10Veres Rivne1-4PolessyaFriendlies Clubs
2023-12-01Polessya1-1Veres RivnePremier League
2023-07-28Veres Rivne0-2PolessyaPremier League
2023-02-10Polessya3-3Veres RivneFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match