Cerro Largo vs Boston River preview
Cerro Largo faces Boston River with a 32% chance for both teams to win, while Boston River has a slight edge at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with Boston River expected to score 1.09 goals compared to Cerro Largo's 0.78.
Cerro Largo's recent form shows 1 draw and 5 losses, while Boston River has 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches. The model indicates a 29% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score. This match could be impacted if Cerro Largo improves its form or if Boston River struggles to maintain its recent success.
Cerro Largo vs Boston River: model vs market
| Source | Cerro Largo | Draw | Boston River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 34% | 41% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 35% |
| Published | 32% | 31% | 37% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.71, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cerro Largo vs Boston River odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Boston River, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 2.68 | 2.62 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 2.93 | 3.00 | +0.07 |
| Boston River | 2.62 | 2.55 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cerro Largo and Boston River expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Cerro Largo / Boston River)
- 0.61 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Cerro Largo / Boston River)
- 1.06 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cerro Largo vs Boston River score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cerro Largo goals. Columns: Boston River goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cerro Largo vs Boston River goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cerro Largo vs Boston River
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro Largo | 32% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Boston River | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cerro Largo or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Boston River) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Boston River win by 2+ | 18% | 5.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cerro Largo and Boston River recent form
Cerro Largo
0W 2D 4L
Boston River
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cerro Largo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
Boston River away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-10
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.76
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cerro Largo at home only, Boston River away only.
Cerro Largo vs Boston River head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Cerro Largo 1 · draws 0 · Boston River 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Cerro Largo | 3-0 | Boston River | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-20 | Boston River | 1-0 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | Boston River | 1-0 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Cerro Largo, previous: Cerro v Cerro Largo analysis
- Boston River, previous: Boston River – Defensor Sporting, 2026-10-17