Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo preview
In the match between Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo, the 1X2 probabilities show Defensor Sporting at 34%, Racing Montevideo at 36%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance. Defensor Sporting's expected goals are 1.04, while Racing Montevideo's are 1.30, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.
Both teams to score has a 48% probability, while Over 2.5 goals is at 41%. Recent form shows Defensor Sporting with three losses in their last five matches, while Racing Montevideo has two wins in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo: model vs market
| Source | Defensor Sporting | Draw | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 30% | 41% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 39% |
| Published | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Racing Montevideo, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 2.58 | 2.89 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 2.91 | 3.08 | +0.17 |
| Racing Montevideo | 2.69 | 2.38 | -0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Defensor Sporting / Racing Montevideo)
- 0.96 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Defensor Sporting / Racing Montevideo)
- 1.35 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Defensor Sporting goals. Columns: Racing Montevideo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Racing Montevideo | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Defensor Sporting or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Racing Montevideo) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Montevideo win by 2+ | 19% | 5.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo recent form
Defensor Sporting
2W 0D 4L
Racing Montevideo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Defensor Sporting at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-7
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Defensor Sporting at home only, Racing Montevideo away only.
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Defensor Sporting 1 · draws 2 · Racing Montevideo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Racing Montevideo | 0-0 | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-18 | Racing Montevideo | 1-1 | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-02-16 | Defensor Sporting | 2-0 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Juventud v Penarol — match page 2026-10-23
- Central Espanol vs Albion FC 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wanderers vs Progreso 2026-10-25
- Atletico Torque v Cerro — match page 2026-10-25
- Cerro Largo vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Defensor Sporting, previous: Boston River – Defensor Sporting, 2026-10-17
- Racing Montevideo, previous: Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers prediction