Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers preview
In the upcoming fixture between Racing Montevideo and Wanderers, the 1X2 probabilities show Racing Montevideo at 43%, while Wanderers sit at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. However, the match could deviate from this forecast if either team finds their scoring touch, as both teams to score stands at 44%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 36%.
Recent form indicates that Racing Montevideo has struggled with three losses in their last five matches, while Wanderers have shown slightly better form with two wins in the same period. Both teams have an expected goals figure of 1.06, suggesting a balanced matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Racing Montevideo | Draw | Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | -13% | +4% | +9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Racing Montevideo, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Montevideo | 2.00 | 1.93 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.24 | +0.04 |
| Wanderers | 3.50 | 3.72 | +0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Racing Montevideo and Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Racing Montevideo / Wanderers)
- 0.72 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Racing Montevideo / Wanderers)
- 0.89 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Racing Montevideo goals. Columns: Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Wanderers | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Racing Montevideo or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Wanderers) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Montevideo win by 2+ | 14% | 7.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Racing Montevideo and Wanderers recent form
Racing Montevideo
1W 1D 4L
Wanderers
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Racing Montevideo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-8
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Montevideo at home only, Wanderers away only.
Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Racing Montevideo 1 · draws 2 · Wanderers 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Wanderers | 1-2 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-03-05 | Racing Montevideo | 0-0 | Wanderers | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2025-02-03 | Wanderers | 0-0 | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Cerro v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-16
- Progreso vs Juventud — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Boston River v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-10-17
- Albion FC vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Danubio vs Central Espanol 2026-10-18
- Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol — match page 2026-10-18
- Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Racing Montevideo, previous: Juventud vs Racing Montevideo prediction
- Wanderers, previous: Wanderers vs Boston River: odds and pick