Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado preview
In the upcoming match between Club Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado, the 1X2 probabilities show a close contest with Club Nacional at 31%, draw at 34%, and Deportivo Maldonado at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 13% probability. Both teams to score stands at 40%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides.
Club Nacional has a recent form of W-W-W-W-D-D, while Deportivo Maldonado shows D-W-W-W-L-W. Despite Club Nacional's strong recent performance, they have not won against Deportivo Maldonado in their last two encounters, which could influence the outcome. The expected goals are 0.93 for Club Nacional and 1.01 for Deportivo Maldonado, suggesting a tight match with limited scoring opportunities.
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: model vs market
| Source | Club Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 34% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 34% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Club Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.94
- Attack rating (Club Nacional / Deportivo Maldonado)
- 1.16 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Club Nacional / Deportivo Maldonado)
- 0.80 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Nacional goals. Columns: Deportivo Maldonado goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 31% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.51 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Nacional or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Maldonado) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win by 2+ | 14% | 7.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado recent form
Club Nacional
4W 2D 0L
Deportivo Maldonado
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-5
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Maldonado away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-6
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Nacional at home only, Deportivo Maldonado away only.
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Club Nacional 0 · draws 0 · Deportivo Maldonado 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Deportivo Maldonado | 3-0 | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-11 | Deportivo Maldonado | 4-2 | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Cerro v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-16
- Progreso vs Juventud — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers 2026-10-17
- Boston River v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-10-17
- Albion FC vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Danubio vs Central Espanol 2026-10-18
- Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Club Nacional, previous: Central Espanol – Club Nacional, 2026-10-11
- Deportivo Maldonado, previous: Deportivo Maldonado v Liverpool Montevideo analysis