Danubio vs Central Espanol preview
In the upcoming match between Danubio and Central Espanol, the 1X2 probabilities show Danubio at 46%, Central Espanol at 23%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, with a 21% chance of occurring.
Danubio's expected goals stand at 0.93, while Central Espanol's is lower at 0.53. The model indicates a low likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 18% and both teams to score at 26%. This suggests a tight match, but if Central Espanol improves their recent form, it could change the outcome.
Danubio vs Central Espanol: model vs market
| Source | Danubio | Draw | Central Espanol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Edge | -4% | +10% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.93 vs 0.53.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Danubio vs Central Espanol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Danubio, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 1.95 | 1.94 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.22 | -0.03 |
| Central Espanol | 3.80 | 3.69 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Danubio and Central Espanol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.45
- Attack rating (Danubio / Central Espanol)
- 0.58 / 0.52
- Defence rating (Danubio / Central Espanol)
- 0.94 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Danubio vs Central Espanol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Danubio goals. Columns: Central Espanol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Danubio vs Central Espanol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 26%
- No goals (0–0)
- 24%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Danubio vs Central Espanol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Central Espanol | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18% | 5.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26% | 3.86 |
| No | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Danubio or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Central Espanol) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Danubio win by 2+ | 16% | 6.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Danubio and Central Espanol recent form
Danubio
1W 2D 3L
Central Espanol
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Danubio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-8-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Central Espanol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Danubio at home only, Central Espanol away only.
Danubio vs Central Espanol head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Danubio 0 · draws 1 · Central Espanol 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Central Espanol | 2-2 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Cerro v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-16
- Progreso vs Juventud — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers 2026-10-17
- Boston River v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-10-17
- Albion FC vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol — match page 2026-10-18
- Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Danubio, previous: Atletico Torque v Danubio analysis
- Central Espanol, previous: Central Espanol – Club Nacional, 2026-10-11