Progreso vs Juventud preview
In the fixture between Progreso and Juventud, the 1X2 probabilities show Juventud at 35% and Progreso at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12% probability. Progreso's expected goals stand at 0.98, while Juventud's are slightly higher at 1.03.
Juventud has a strong recent head-to-head record, winning all 4 of their last encounters against Progreso. Progreso's recent form includes 4 wins out of 6 matches, but Juventud has struggled with 4 draws in their last 6 games. The model suggests a 42% chance for both teams to score and a 33% chance for Over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for a low-scoring match.
Progreso vs Juventud: model vs market
| Source | Progreso | Draw | Juventud |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 34% | 40% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Edge | -2% | +6% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Progreso vs Juventud odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventud, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 3.20 | 3.17 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.34 | +0.00 |
| Juventud | 2.07 | 2.08 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Progreso and Juventud expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.96
- Attack rating (Progreso / Juventud)
- 0.97 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Progreso / Juventud)
- 1.12 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Progreso vs Juventud score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Progreso goals. Columns: Juventud goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Progreso vs Juventud goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Progreso vs Juventud
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 28% | 3.53 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Juventud | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.51 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Progreso or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventud) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventud win by 2+ | 17% | 5.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Progreso and Juventud recent form
Progreso
3W 1D 2L
Juventud
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Progreso at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-9
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-6
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Progreso at home only, Juventud away only.
Progreso vs Juventud head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Progreso 3 · draws 2 · Juventud 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Juventud | 2-0 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-12 | Juventud | 1-0 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-01-19 | Juventud | 0-1 | Progreso | Copa De La Liga Auf |
| 2025-11-09 | Juventud | 1-1 | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-06-29 | Juventud | 2-0 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-05-18 | Progreso | 1-2 | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2023-11-18 | Progreso | 2-1 | Juventud | Segunda División |
| 2023-07-07 | Juventud | 1-1 | Progreso | Segunda División |
| 2023-04-29 | Juventud | 1-5 | Progreso | Segunda División |
| 2022-08-06 | Progreso | 0-1 | Juventud | Segunda División |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Cerro v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-16
- Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers 2026-10-17
- Boston River v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-10-17
- Albion FC vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Danubio vs Central Espanol 2026-10-18
- Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol — match page 2026-10-18
- Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Progreso, previous: Penarol – Progreso, 2026-10-10
- Juventud, previous: Juventud vs Racing Montevideo prediction