Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol preview
In the upcoming match, Liverpool Montevideo has a 28% chance of winning against Penarol, who has a 42% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% probability. Liverpool Montevideo's expected goals stand at 1.06, while Penarol's is slightly higher at 1.20.
Both teams to score has a 47% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 39%. Recent form shows Liverpool Montevideo with a record of D-W-W-D-L-W, while Penarol has performed better with D-W-D-W-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Market | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Published | 29% | 30% | 42% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penarol, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 3.35 | 3.26 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.08 | -0.02 |
| Penarol | 2.15 | 2.10 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Liverpool Montevideo / Penarol)
- 1.23 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Liverpool Montevideo / Penarol)
- 0.81 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool Montevideo goals. Columns: Penarol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Penarol | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool Montevideo or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Penarol) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win by 2+ | 17% | 6.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol recent form
Liverpool Montevideo
3W 2D 1L
Penarol
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liverpool Montevideo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.53
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 15
- They have won 20 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool Montevideo at home only, Penarol away only.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Liverpool Montevideo 3 · draws 0 · Penarol 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Penarol | 2-1 | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-13 | Penarol | 0-2 | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-06-19 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3-2 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-03-20 | Penarol | 0-3 | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Cerro v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-16
- Progreso vs Juventud — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers 2026-10-17
- Boston River v Defensor Sporting — match page 2026-10-17
- Albion FC vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Danubio vs Central Espanol 2026-10-18
- Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Liverpool Montevideo, previous: Deportivo Maldonado v Liverpool Montevideo analysis
- Penarol, previous: Penarol – Progreso, 2026-10-10