Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio preview
Deportivo Maldonado has a 51% chance to win against Danubio, who has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 19% of the time according to our model. Deportivo Maldonado's expected goals stand at 1.35, while Danubio has an expected 0.55.
While both teams to score is at 32%, the low expected goals for Danubio could lead to a lack of scoring opportunities. Additionally, Deportivo Maldonado's recent form shows a mix of results, with two losses in their last six matches. This inconsistency could impact their performance against Danubio, who has also struggled, recording only one win in their last six games.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Danubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 30% | 14% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Maldonado, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 1.85 | 1.87 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Danubio | 3.90 | 3.86 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.90
- Attack rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Danubio)
- 1.19 / 0.63
- Defence rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Danubio)
- 0.82 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Maldonado goals. Columns: Danubio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Danubio | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.09 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Maldonado or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Danubio) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win by 2+ | 28% | 3.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio recent form
Deportivo Maldonado
3W 1D 2L
Danubio
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Maldonado at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-5-1
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.76
- Goals against / match
- 0.65
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Maldonado at home only, Danubio away only.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Deportivo Maldonado 1 · draws 1 · Danubio 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Deportivo Maldonado | 3-1 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-19 | Danubio | 1-1 | Deportivo Maldonado | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Juventud v Penarol — match page 2026-10-23
- Central Espanol vs Albion FC 2026-10-24
- Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wanderers vs Progreso 2026-10-25
- Atletico Torque v Cerro — match page 2026-10-25
- Cerro Largo vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Maldonado, previous: Club Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado, 2026-10-19
- Danubio, previous: Danubio vs Central Espanol: odds and pick