Atletico Torque vs Cerro preview
Atletico Torque faces Cerro with a 44% chance to win, while Cerro has a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. Atletico Torque has an expected goals figure of 1.55, compared to Cerro's 1.19.
Recent form shows Atletico Torque with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Cerro has 2 wins in their last 6. The head-to-head record favors Atletico Torque, with 1 win and 1 draw in the last 2 encounters. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. This could affect the outcome if either team improves their form.
Atletico Torque vs Cerro: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Torque | Draw | Cerro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 15% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.10.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Torque vs Cerro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Torque, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque | 1.48 | 1.49 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.92 | -0.03 |
| Cerro | 6.06 | 6.00 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Torque and Cerro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (Atletico Torque / Cerro)
- 1.19 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Atletico Torque / Cerro)
- 1.04 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Torque vs Cerro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Torque goals. Columns: Cerro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Torque vs Cerro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Torque vs Cerro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Cerro | 18% | 5.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Torque or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerro) | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Torque win by 2+ | 26% | 3.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Torque and Cerro recent form
Atletico Torque
2W 1D 3L
Cerro
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Torque at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-6
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-10
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Torque at home only, Cerro away only.
Atletico Torque vs Cerro head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Atletico Torque 1 · draws 1 · Cerro 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Cerro | 1-1 | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-20 | Cerro | 1-2 | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Juventud v Penarol — match page 2026-10-23
- Central Espanol vs Albion FC 2026-10-24
- Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wanderers vs Progreso 2026-10-25
- Cerro Largo vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Atletico Torque, previous: Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG: odds and pick
- Cerro, previous: Cerro v Cerro Largo analysis