Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo preview
In the match between Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo, the 1X2 probabilities show Club Nacional at 37%, with a predicted scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Both teams to score stands at 45%, indicating a reasonable chance that both will find the net.
Despite Club Nacional's recent form of W-W-W-W-D-D, Liverpool Montevideo has a mixed record of W-D-W-W-D-L. This could affect the outcome, as Liverpool Montevideo may perform better than expected. The expected goals suggest Club Nacional at 1.14 and Liverpool Montevideo at 1.02, hinting at a close contest.
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo: model vs market
| Source | Club Nacional | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Club Nacional / Liverpool Montevideo)
- 1.31 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Club Nacional / Liverpool Montevideo)
- 0.91 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Nacional goals. Columns: Liverpool Montevideo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Nacional or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Liverpool Montevideo) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win by 2+ | 18% | 5.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo recent form
Club Nacional
5W 1D 0L
Liverpool Montevideo
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-5
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool Montevideo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-4
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.35
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Nacional at home only, Liverpool Montevideo away only.
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Club Nacional 1 · draws 1 · Liverpool Montevideo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Liverpool Montevideo | 1-3 | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-03-26 | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-2 | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Juventud v Penarol — match page 2026-10-23
- Central Espanol vs Albion FC 2026-10-24
- Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wanderers vs Progreso 2026-10-25
- Atletico Torque v Cerro — match page 2026-10-25
- Cerro Largo vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Club Nacional, previous: Club Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado, 2026-10-19
- Liverpool Montevideo, previous: Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol prediction