Juventud vs Penarol preview
In the upcoming match between Juventud and Penarol, the 1X2 probabilities show Penarol at 45%, Juventud at 25%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs at a 15% probability.
Juventud's expected goals stand at 0.81, while Penarol's are slightly higher at 0.97. Both teams to score has a 36% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at just 27%. Juventud's recent form includes 1 win and 4 draws in their last 5 matches, while Penarol has 3 wins and 2 draws in the same period. These stats suggest a close contest, but the outcome could shift if either team improves their scoring efficiency.
Juventud vs Penarol: model vs market
| Source | Juventud | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 36% | 37% |
| Market | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Published | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Juventud vs Penarol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penarol, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 3.81 | 3.90 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.28 | +0.04 |
| Penarol | 1.92 | 1.85 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juventud and Penarol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.79
- Attack rating (Juventud / Penarol)
- 0.88 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Juventud / Penarol)
- 0.73 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juventud vs Penarol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juventud goals. Columns: Penarol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juventud vs Penarol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juventud vs Penarol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 24% | 4.09 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Penarol | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.78 |
| No | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juventud or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Penarol) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win by 2+ | 14% | 7.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Juventud and Penarol recent form
Juventud
2W 3D 1L
Penarol
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juventud at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 20 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juventud at home only, Penarol away only.
Juventud vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Juventud 1 · draws 4 · Penarol 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Penarol | 2-2 | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-09-21 | Penarol | 1-0 | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-03-27 | Juventud | 0-2 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2019-09-21 | Juventud | 1-1 | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2019-08-18 | Penarol | 0-0 | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2019-03-03 | Penarol | 4-1 | Juventud | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2017-11-11 | Penarol | 1-0 | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2017-04-08 | Juventud | 0-2 | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2016-09-25 | Juventud | 1-0 | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2016-06-04 | Juventud | 1-1 | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Juventud, previous: Progreso vs Juventud: odds and pick
- Penarol, previous: Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol prediction