Wanderers vs Progreso preview
Wanderers face Progreso with a 42% chance of winning compared to Progreso's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time in our model. Wanderers have scored an expected 1.36 goals, while Progreso is slightly higher at 1.41.
Both teams to score stands at 57%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 52%. However, Wanderers' recent form shows two losses followed by a win, while Progreso has won two of their last three matches. This recent performance could impact the outcome, making the match more unpredictable than the numbers suggest.
Wanderers vs Progreso: model vs market
| Source | Wanderers | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wanderers vs Progreso odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wanderers, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wanderers | 2.05 | 2.10 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.24 | +0.00 |
| Progreso | 3.24 | 3.22 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wanderers and Progreso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Wanderers / Progreso)
- 1.02 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Wanderers / Progreso)
- 1.30 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wanderers vs Progreso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wanderers goals. Columns: Progreso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wanderers vs Progreso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wanderers vs Progreso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wanderers | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Progreso | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wanderers or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Progreso) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wanderers win by 2+ | 16% | 6.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wanderers and Progreso recent form
Wanderers
2W 2D 2L
Progreso
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-10
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wanderers at home only, Progreso away only.
Wanderers vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Wanderers 1 · draws 1 · Progreso 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Wanderers | 2-0 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-18 | Progreso | 2-1 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-03-27 | Wanderers | 1-1 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Juventud v Penarol — match page 2026-10-23
- Central Espanol vs Albion FC 2026-10-24
- Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Atletico Torque v Cerro — match page 2026-10-25
- Cerro Largo vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Wanderers, previous: Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers prediction
- Progreso, previous: Progreso vs Juventud: odds and pick