Danubio vs Club Nacional preview
In the fixture between Danubio and Club Nacional, the 1X2 probabilities show Club Nacional at 45%, while Danubio sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance. Danubio's expected goals are 0.76, compared to Club Nacional's 1.20, indicating a potential struggle for the home side.
While the model suggests a low likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 38%, unexpected performances or errors could change the outcome. Danubio's recent form includes 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Club Nacional has won 6 in a row, which could influence the match dynamics.
Danubio vs Club Nacional: model vs market
| Source | Danubio | Draw | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 33% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 33% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Danubio and Club Nacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.96
- Attack rating (Danubio / Club Nacional)
- 0.65 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Danubio / Club Nacional)
- 0.95 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Danubio vs Club Nacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Danubio goals. Columns: Club Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Danubio vs Club Nacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Danubio vs Club Nacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 22% | 4.55 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Club Nacional | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.60 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Danubio or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Nacional) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win by 2+ | 21% | 4.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Danubio and Club Nacional recent form
Danubio
2W 1D 3L
Club Nacional
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Danubio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-6
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Danubio at home only, Club Nacional away only.
Danubio vs Club Nacional head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Danubio 1 · draws 1 · Club Nacional 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Danubio | 0-0 | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-04-25 | Club Nacional | 1-2 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-06-29 | Club Nacional | 3-2 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | Club Nacional | 2-0 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
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Before and after this match
- Danubio, previous: Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio prediction
- Club Nacional, previous: Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction