Progreso vs Defensor Sporting preview
Progreso faces Defensor Sporting with a 56% probability of winning, compared to Defensor's 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Progreso's expected goals of 1.92 against Defensor's 1.08. Progreso's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Defensor has struggled with 4 losses in their last 6 games.
The model also suggests a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. However, Defensor's low expected goals could impact their ability to contribute to the scoreline. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain, especially considering the recent head-to-head results, which feature 1 win for each team.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: model vs market
| Source | Progreso | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Progreso below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Progreso, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Defensor Sporting | 2.58 | 2.58 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Progreso and Defensor Sporting expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Progreso / Defensor Sporting)
- 1.01 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Progreso / Defensor Sporting)
- 0.91 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Progreso goals. Columns: Defensor Sporting goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Defensor Sporting | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Progreso or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Defensor Sporting) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Progreso win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Progreso and Defensor Sporting recent form
Progreso
4W 1D 1L
Defensor Sporting
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Progreso at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-9
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensor Sporting away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-8-7
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Progreso at home only, Defensor Sporting away only.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Progreso 1 · draws 0 · Defensor Sporting 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Defensor Sporting | 1-0 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-04-20 | Defensor Sporting | 1-2 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Racing Montevideo v Cerro Largo — match page 2026-10-31
- Cerro vs Central Espanol — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Penarol vs Wanderers 2026-10-31
- Boston River vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Danubio vs Club Nacional 2026-11-01
- Albion FC v Deportivo Maldonado — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Progreso, previous: Wanderers – Progreso, 2026-10-25
- Defensor Sporting, previous: Defensor Sporting – Racing Montevideo, 2026-10-24