Defensor Sporting vs Penarol preview
Defensor Sporting faces Penarol with a 21% chance for a home win and a 53% chance for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 11% of the time according to our model. Defensor Sporting's expected goals stand at 1.04, while Penarol's is higher at 1.52.
Both teams to score has a probability of 52%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. Recent form shows Defensor Sporting with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Penarol has drawn 4 of their last 6. The head-to-head record favors Penarol, who has won 3 of the last 4 encounters. A draw is also a possibility with a 26% chance.
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol: model vs market
| Source | Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| Published | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.04.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penarol, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 4.72 | 5.00 | +0.28 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.65 | +0.03 |
| Penarol | 1.64 | 1.60 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Defensor Sporting and Penarol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Defensor Sporting / Penarol)
- 1.17 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Defensor Sporting / Penarol)
- 1.32 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Defensor Sporting goals. Columns: Penarol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 20% | 5.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Penarol | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Defensor Sporting or draw) | 46% | 2.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Penarol) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win by 2+ | 24% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Defensor Sporting and Penarol recent form
Defensor Sporting
2W 1D 3L
Penarol
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Defensor Sporting at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-7
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-3
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.53
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 20 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Defensor Sporting at home only, Penarol away only.
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Defensor Sporting 0 · draws 1 · Penarol 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Defensor Sporting | 0-2 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-05-04 | Penarol | 1-1 | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-06-07 | Penarol | 3-0 | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-05-03 | Defensor Sporting | 0-1 | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Cerro Largo vs Progreso 2026-11-12
- Atletico Torque v Racing Montevideo — match page 2026-11-13
- Central Espanol vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro 2026-11-14
- Club Nacional v Albion FC — match page 2026-11-14
- Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Wanderers v Juventud — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Defensor Sporting, previous: Progreso v Defensor Sporting analysis
- Penarol, previous: Penarol – Wanderers, 2026-10-31