Wanderers vs Juventud preview
Wanderers face Juventud with a 41% chance of winning compared to Juventud's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time according to our model. Wanderers have an expected goals figure of 0.85, while Juventud sits slightly higher at 0.96.
Both teams to score stands at 37%, indicating a moderate chance of both sides finding the net. However, Wanderers' recent form shows 3 losses in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Juventud has a better recent record with 2 wins in the same period, suggesting they may have the upper hand in this matchup.
Wanderers vs Juventud: model vs market
| Source | Wanderers | Draw | Juventud |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 35% | 35% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wanderers vs Juventud odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wanderers, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wanderers | 2.50 | 1.95 | -0.55 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.38 | +0.23 |
| Juventud | 2.53 | 3.43 | +0.90 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wanderers and Juventud expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.81
- Attack rating (Wanderers / Juventud)
- 0.89 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Wanderers / Juventud)
- 1.23 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wanderers vs Juventud score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wanderers goals. Columns: Juventud goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wanderers vs Juventud goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wanderers vs Juventud
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wanderers | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Juventud | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.72 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wanderers or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventud) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wanderers win by 2+ | 10% | 9.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wanderers and Juventud recent form
Wanderers
2W 1D 3L
Juventud
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-4
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-7
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.39
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wanderers at home only, Juventud away only.
Wanderers vs Juventud head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Wanderers 1 · draws 0 · Juventud 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Juventud | 2-5 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2026-05-02 | Juventud | 2-1 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-02-23 | Juventud | 1-0 | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Cerro Largo vs Progreso 2026-11-12
- Atletico Torque v Racing Montevideo — match page 2026-11-13
- Central Espanol vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro 2026-11-14
- Club Nacional v Albion FC — match page 2026-11-14
- Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Defensor Sporting vs Penarol 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Wanderers, previous: Penarol – Wanderers, 2026-10-31
- Juventud, previous: Liverpool Montevideo v Juventud analysis