Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo preview
In the match between Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for Liverpool Montevideo at 51%, compared to Danubio's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 19% chance according to our model. Liverpool Montevideo's recent form shows 5 wins and 1 draw, while Danubio has only 2 wins in their last 6 matches.
While Liverpool Montevideo appears favored, the possibility of a lower-scoring match exists, with Over 2.5 goals only at 30% and both teams to score at 33%. Danubio's expected goals stand at 0.56, suggesting they may struggle to find the net. This could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo: model vs market
| Source | Danubio | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 30% | 56% |
| Market | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Published | 21% | 28% | 51% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Liverpool Montevideo, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 3.59 | 3.90 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.25 | -0.03 |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1.97 | 1.84 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.93
- Attack rating (Danubio / Liverpool Montevideo)
- 0.69 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Danubio / Liverpool Montevideo)
- 1.04 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Danubio goals. Columns: Liverpool Montevideo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 21% | 4.78 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.02 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Danubio or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Liverpool Montevideo) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool Montevideo win by 2+ | 28% | 3.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo recent form
Danubio
2W 0D 4L
Liverpool Montevideo
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Danubio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-5
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool Montevideo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Danubio at home only, Liverpool Montevideo away only.
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Danubio 0 · draws 1 · Liverpool Montevideo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3-0 | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-02-01 | Danubio | 1-1 | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Cerro Largo vs Progreso 2026-11-12
- Atletico Torque v Racing Montevideo — match page 2026-11-13
- Central Espanol vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro 2026-11-14
- Club Nacional v Albion FC — match page 2026-11-14
- Defensor Sporting vs Penarol 2026-11-15
- Wanderers v Juventud — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Danubio, previous: Danubio vs Club Nacional prediction
- Liverpool Montevideo, previous: Liverpool Montevideo v Juventud analysis