Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro preview
In the match between Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Maldonado at 58% to win, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. Deportivo Maldonado has an expected goals figure of 1.74, while Cerro sits at 0.77. This indicates a strong attacking advantage for the home side.
However, the match could deviate from the prediction if Cerro improves their form, as they have recently recorded two losses and a draw. Both teams to score stands at 45%, suggesting that while Deportivo Maldonado is favored, there is a chance for Cerro to find the net. Additionally, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is at 46%, indicating a potential for a higher-scoring game if both teams perform better than expected.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Cerro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Maldonado, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 1.60 | 1.58 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.70 | -0.02 |
| Cerro | 5.30 | 5.10 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Cerro)
- 1.08 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Deportivo Maldonado / Cerro)
- 0.74 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Maldonado goals. Columns: Cerro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Cerro | 17% | 5.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Maldonado or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerro) | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro recent form
Deportivo Maldonado
3W 2D 1L
Cerro
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Maldonado at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-5-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.78
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 18
- They have won 18 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Cerro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-11
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 2.11
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Maldonado at home only, Cerro away only.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Deportivo Maldonado 1 · draws 0 · Cerro 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Cerro | 0-1 | Deportivo Maldonado | Uruguay Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Cerro Largo vs Progreso 2026-11-12
- Atletico Torque v Racing Montevideo — match page 2026-11-13
- Central Espanol vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Club Nacional v Albion FC — match page 2026-11-14
- Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Defensor Sporting vs Penarol 2026-11-15
- Wanderers v Juventud — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Maldonado, previous: Albion FC – Deportivo Maldonado, 2026-11-02
- Cerro, previous: Cerro vs Central Espanol prediction