Cerro Largo vs Progreso preview
Cerro Largo faces Progreso with a 41% chance of winning compared to Progreso's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Cerro Largo has struggled recently, with a record of L-W-D-L-L-L, while Progreso shows better form at L-W-W-D-L-W.
Cerro Largo has an expected goals figure of 0.94, while Progreso's is higher at 1.13. This discrepancy could lead to a different outcome than the predicted scoreline. Additionally, the probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 34% and for both teams to score at 43%, indicating that a low-scoring match is more likely.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso: model vs market
| Source | Cerro Largo | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 33% | 38% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cerro Largo vs Progreso odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cerro Largo, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 2.04 | 1.79 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.46 | +0.16 |
| Progreso | 3.40 | 4.04 | +0.64 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cerro Largo and Progreso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (Cerro Largo / Progreso)
- 0.75 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Cerro Largo / Progreso)
- 1.13 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cerro Largo goals. Columns: Progreso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cerro Largo vs Progreso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro Largo | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Progreso | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cerro Largo or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Progreso) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerro Largo win by 2+ | 11% | 9.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cerro Largo and Progreso recent form
Cerro Largo
1W 1D 4L
Progreso
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cerro Largo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Progreso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-10
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cerro Largo at home only, Progreso away only.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cerro Largo 8 · draws 1 · Progreso 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Progreso | 0-1 | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-08-09 | Progreso | 1-2 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-02-07 | Cerro Largo | 4-1 | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2024-11-30 | Cerro Largo | 2-1 | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2024-06-04 | Progreso | 0-1 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2021-10-17 | Cerro Largo | 1-0 | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2021-06-19 | Progreso | 0-0 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2021-03-14 | Progreso | 1-0 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2020-09-12 | Progreso | 1-2 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2019-11-21 | Progreso | 0-1 | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Atletico Torque v Racing Montevideo — match page 2026-11-13
- Central Espanol vs Boston River — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro 2026-11-14
- Club Nacional v Albion FC — match page 2026-11-14
- Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Defensor Sporting vs Penarol 2026-11-15
- Wanderers v Juventud — match page 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Cerro Largo, previous: Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo: odds and pick
- Progreso, previous: Progreso v Defensor Sporting analysis